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Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB) caused by Parastagonospora nodorum is a serious disease of wheat worldwide. In the United States, the disease is prevalent on winter wheat in many eastern states, and its management relies mainly on fungicide application after flag leaf emergence. Although SNB can occur prior to flag leaf emergence, the relationship between the time of disease onset and yield has not been determined. Such a relationship is useful in identifying a threshold to facilitate prediction of disease onset in the field. Disease occurred in 390 of 435 disease cases that were recorded across 11 counties in North Carolina from 2012 to 2014. Using cases with disease occurrence, the effect of disease onset on yield was analyzed to identify a disease onset threshold that related time of disease onset to yield. Regression analysis showed that disease onset explained 32% of the variation in yield (P  0.90. Performance of the disease onset model based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), κ, and the true skill statistic (TSS) was excellent, with prediction accuracy values &gt;0.88. Similarly, internal validation of the disease onset model based on AUC, κ, and TSS indicated good performance, with accuracy values &gt;0.88. This disease onset prediction model could serve as a useful decision support tool to guide fungicide applications to manage SNB in wheat.

A Model for Predicting Onset of Stagonospora nodorum Blotch in Winter Wheat Based on Preplanting and Weather Factors