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Minnesota small grains production sustained an estimated $1.8 billion in crop losses from Fusarium head blight (FHB) between 1993 and 2001. Crop losses continue to increase with another $86 million added during 2005. A forecasting model, designed to predict the risk that FHB epidemics may or may not occur, is deployed statewide. Users of the online system are made aware when local weather conditions promote or reduce the likelihood that a FHB epidemic will occur. The model serves as a decision-making tool prior to fungicide application. During 2004-2005, disease index data were collected from a total of 8 experiment sites and 5 spring wheat cultivars. In 2004, index means were low, ranging from 0.8% to 6.8%. However, the system predicted low and high risks for FHB epidemics. During 2005, index means ranged from 2.6% to 13.9%. Epidemic risk predictions were estimated as low and moderate. The system predicted nonepidemics with 60% and 66% accuracies in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Epidemics were predicted 50% of the time during 2005. Increased predictive accuracy is expected during 2006 as information on spring wheat cultivar resistance levels have been added to the model. Introduction Fusarium head blight (FHB) of small grains [caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, teleomorph Gibberella zeae (Schwein.) Petch] has been a sporadic production issue in the US since it was reported during the 1890s in Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (6). Immediately after the turn of the 20th Century, crop losses caused by FHB were documented in Europe, Japan, and 31 grain-producing states in the US (6). More recently, crops in the upper Midwest have been particularly hard hit. Since the early 1990s, hard red spring wheat and spring barley yield and quality losses have been common in Minnesota. Researchers describe the recent FHB-related crop losses and economic instabilities in the agricultural sector in depth (4). Direct losses are borne primarily by growers, while indirect losses occur when growers spend less money in their local communities and elsewhere (5). Between 1993 and 2001, FHB caused an estimated $1.8 billion in direct and indirect losses in Minnesota (5). During 2005 alone, losses in hard red spring wheat are estimated at $86 million. Moreover, the economic viability of small grains production remains uncertain in an area of the US historically known for producing quality spring

Predictive Accuracy of a Fusarium Head Blight Epidemic Risk Forecasting System Deployed in Minnesota