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We analyzed historical data on timber use and projected timber availability to 2045 to examine whether timber volumes would be available to meet the harvest requirements of existing or expanding lumber manufacturing and log export sectors in western Washington. Biennial mill surveys from the Washington Department of Natural Resources were used to describe past timber demand by the sawmilling and log exporting sectors. A simple linear programming model was used to project timber availability into the future. Our analysis revealed that current harvest levels could continue into the future, under some restricting assumptions, and can provide adequate timber volume to maintain the current lumber manufacturing sector. The projection also suggested that sawmilling capacity could expand if log exports should continue to decline. The projections are further analyzed with respect to historical distributions by species.

Lumber Manufacturing, Log Exports, and Timber Availability in Western Washington