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An approach to the prediction of mutant stability is described using knowledge of amino acid replacements that are tolerated within the families of homologous proteins of known 3-D structure. Amino acid variations in families of homologous proteins are converted to propensity and substitution tables; these provide quantitative information about the existence of an amino acid in a structural environment and the probability of replacement by any other amino acid. The tables are used to calculate a 'stability difference score', analogous to the difference in free energy between a mutant and the wild type. The method has been developed and tested using the high-resolution structures for T4 lysozyme and 159 site-specific mutants. We show that differences in stability scores are correlated with experimentally observed free energy differences and differences in melting temperature. Blind tests, using only structural information derived from the parent wild-type crystal structures, on a combined set of 83 staphylococcal nuclease and 68 barnase mutants showed a correlation of 0.80 in the predicted stability changes with experimental thermodynamic data. Approximately 86% of the predictions were correctly classified as destabilizing or stabilizing.

Prediction of the stability of protein mutants based on structural environment-dependent amino acid substitution and propensity tables