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Most prospective studies of quit attempts (QAs) or abstinence measure the ability of variables to predict quitting many weeks or months later. This design ignores more proximal fluctuations in the predictor that may be more relevant. The present secondary analysis compares 6-week (distal) and daily (proximal) changes in cigarettes per day (CPD) as predictors of making a QA.

Distal Measurements Can Produce False Negative Results: A Prospective Secondary Analysis of a Natural History Study