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We study how statistical properties of supermassive black holes depend on thefrequency and conditions for massive seed formation in cosmological simulationsof structure formation. We develop a novel method to recalculate detailedgrowth histories and merger trees of black holes within the framework of theIllustris simulation for several seed formation models, including a physicallymotivated model where black hole seeds only form in progenitor galaxies thatconform to the conditions for direct collapse black hole formation. While allseed models considered here are in a broad agreement with present observationalconstraints on black hole populations from optical, UV and X-ray studies, wefind that they lead to widely different black hole number densities and halooccupation fractions which are currently observationally unconstrained. Interms of future electromagnetic spectrum observations, the faint-end quasarluminosity function and the low-mass-end black hole-host galaxy scalingrelations are very sensitive to the specific massive seed prescription.Specifically, the direct collapse model exhibits a seeding efficiency whichdecreases rapidly with cosmic time and produces much fewer black holes in lowmass galaxies, in contrast to the original Illustris simulation. We furtherfind that the total black hole merger rate varies by more than one order ofmagnitude for different seed models, with the redshift evolution of the chirpmass changing as well. Supermassive black hole merger detections with LISA andInternational Pulsar Timing Array may hence provide the most direct means ofconstraining massive black hole seed formation in the early Universe.

Cosmological simulations of massive black hole seeds: predictions for next generation electromagnetic and gravitational wave observations