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In anticipation of the upcoming deployment of the James Webb Space Telescope(JWST), we present high-redshift predictions by the well-established Santa Cruzsemi-analytic model. We update the models by re-calibrating them after adoptingcosmological parameters consistent with recent constraints from Planck. Weprovide predictions for rest-frame UV luminosity functions for galaxypopulations over a wide range of $M_\text{UV}$ from $\sim-6$ to $\sim-24$between $z = 4 - 10$. In addition, we present the corresponding predictions forobserved-frame galaxy number counts in different redshift bins in the full setof NIRCam filters. We provide predictions of the quantitative effect on theseobservables of varying the physical recipes implemented in the models, such asthe molecular gas depletion time (star formation efficiency) scalings or thescalings of outflow rates driven by stars and supernovae with galaxy circularvelocity. Based on these results, we discuss what may be learned about thephysical processes that shape galaxy formation from JWST observations of galaxynumber densities at different intrinsic luminosities. All data tables for theresults presented in this work are available athttps://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.

Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST - I. UV luminosity functions at z = 4 - 10