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In addition to astro-meteorological parameters, such as seeing, coherencetime and isoplanatic angle, the vertical profile of the Earth's atmosphericturbulence strength and velocity is important for instrument design,performance validation and monitoring, and observation scheduling andmanagement. Here we compare these astro-meteorological parameters as well asthe vertical profile itself from a forecast model based on a GeneralCirculation Model from the European Centre for Median range Weather Forecastsand the stereo-SCIDAR, a high-sensitivity turbulence profiling instrument inregular operation at Paranal, Chile. The model is fast to process as no spatialnesting or data manipulation is performed. This speed enables the model to bereactive based on the most up to date forecasts. We find that the model isstatistically consistent with measurements from stereo-SCIDAR. The correlationof the median turbulence profile from the model and the measurement is 0.98. Wealso find that the distributions of astro-meteorological parameters areconsistent. We compare contemporaneous measurements and show that the freeatmosphere seeing, isoplanatic angle and coherence time have correlation valuesof 0.64, 0.40 and 0.63 respectively. We show and compare the profile sequencesfrom a large number of trial nights. We see that the model is able to forecastthe evolution of dominating features. In addition to smart scheduling, ensuringthat the most sensitive astronomical observations are scheduled for the optimumtime, this model could enable remote site characterisation using a largearchive of weather forecasts and could be used to optimise the performance ofwide-field AO system.

Atmospheric turbulence forecasting with a General Circulation Model for Cerro Paranal