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As endpoints of the hierarchical mass-assembly process, the stellarpopulations of local early-type galaxies encode the assembly history ofgalaxies over cosmic time. We use Horizon-AGN, a cosmological hydrodynamicalsimulation, to study the merger histories of local early-type galaxies andtrack how the morphological mix of their progenitors evolves over time. Weprovide a framework for alleviating `progenitor bias' -- the bias that occursif one uses only early-type galaxies to study the progenitor population.Early-types attain their final morphology at relatively early epochs -- by$z\sim1$, around 60 per cent of today's early-types have had their lastsignificant merger. At all redshifts, the majority of mergers have onelate-type progenitor, with late-late mergers dominating at $z>1.5$ andearly-early mergers becoming significant only at $z<0.5$. Progenitor bias issevere at all but the lowest redshifts -- e.g. at $z\sim0.6$, less than 50 percent of the stellar mass in today's early-types is actually in progenitors withearly-type morphology, while, at $z\sim2$, studying only early-types missesalmost all (80 per cent) of the stellar mass that eventually ends up in localearly-type systems. At high redshift, almost all massive late-type galaxies,regardless of their local environment or star-formation rate, are progenitorsof local early-type galaxies, as are lower-mass (M$_\star$ $<$ 10$^{10.5}$M$_{\odot}$) late-types as long as they reside in high density environments. Inthis new era of large observational surveys (e.g. LSST, JWST), this studyprovides a framework for studying how today's early-type galaxies have beenbuilt up over cosmic time.

monthly notices of the royal astronomical society

Identifying the progenitors of present-day early-type galaxies in  observational surveys: correcting `progenitor bias' using the Horizon-AGN  simulation