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We present a yield simulator to predict the number and characteristics ofplanets, false positives and false alarms in transit surveys. The simulator isbased on a galactic model and the planet occurrence rates measured by theKepler mission. It takes into account the observation window function andmeasured noise levels of the investigated survey. Additionally, it includesvetting criteria to identify false positives. We apply this simulator to theNext Generation Transit Survey (NGTS), a wide-field survey designed to detecttransiting Neptune-sized exoplanets. We find that red noise is the mainlimitation of NGTS up to 14th magnitude, and that its obtained level determinesthe expected yield. Assuming a red noise level of 1 mmag, the simulationpredicts the following for a four-year survey: 4+-3 Super-Earths, 19+-5 SmallNeptunes, 16+-4 Large Neptunes, 55+-8 Saturn-sized planets and 150+-10Jupiter-sized planets, along with 4688+-45 eclipsing binaries and 843+-75background eclipsing binaries. We characterize the properties of these objectsto enhance the early identification of false positives and discuss follow-upstrategies for transiting candidates.

A New Yield Simulator for Transiting Planets and False Positives: Application to the Next Generation Transit Survey