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It is often claimed that overdensities of (or even individual bright)submillimetre-selected galaxies (SMGs) trace the assembly of the most-massivedark matter structures in the Universe. We test this claim by performing acounts-in-cells analysis of mock SMG catalogues derived from the Bolshoicosmological simulation to investigate how well SMG associations trace theunderlying dark matter structure. We find that SMGs exhibit a relativelycomplex bias: some regions of high SMG overdensity are underdense in terms ofdark matter mass, and some regions of high dark matter overdensity contain noSMGs. Because of their rarity, Poisson noise causes scatter in the SMGoverdensity at fixed dark matter overdensity. Consequently, rich associationsof less-luminous, more-abundant galaxies (i.e. Lyman-break galaxy analogues)trace the highest dark matter overdensities much better than SMGs. Even onaverage, SMG associations are relatively poor tracers of the most significantdark matter overdensities because of 'downsizing': at z < ~2.5, themost-massive galaxies that reside in the highest dark matter overdensities havealready had their star formation quenched and are thus no longer SMGs. At agiven redshift, of the 10 per cent most-massive overdensities, only ~25 percent contain at least one SMG, and less than a few per cent contain more thanone SMG.

The bias of the submillimetre galaxy population: SMGs are poor tracers of the most massive structures in the z ~ 2 Universe