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Studies of transiting Neptune-size planets orbiting close to nearby brightstars can inform theories of planet formation because mass and radius andtherefore mean density can be accurately estimated and compared with interiormodels. The distribution of such planets with stellar mass and orbital periodrelative to their Jovian-mass counterparts can test scenarios of orbitalmigration, and whether "hot" (period < 10d) Neptunes evolved from "hot"Jupiters as a result of mass loss. We searched 1763 late K and early M dwarfstars for transiting Neptunes by analyzing photometry from the Wide AngleSearch for Planets and obtaining high-precision ($<10^{-3}$) follow-upphotometry of stars with candidate transit signals. One star in our sample (GJ436) hosts a previously reported hot Neptune. We identified 92 candidatesignals among 80 other stars and carried out 148 observations of predictedcandidate transits with 1-2 m telescopes. Data on 70 WASP signals rules outtransits for 39 of them; 28 other signals are ambiguous and/or require moredata. Three systems have transit-like events in follow-up photometry and weplan additional follow-up observations. On the basis of no confirmed detectionsin our survey, we place an upper limit of 10.25% on the occurrence of hotNeptunes around late K and early M dwarfs (95% confidence). A single confirmeddetection would translate to an occurrence of 5.3$\pm$4.4%. The latter figureis similar to that from Doppler surveys, suggesting that GJ 436b may be theonly transiting hot Neptune in our sample. Our analysis of Kepler data forsimilar but more distant late-type dwarfs yields an occurrence of0.32$\pm$0.21%. Depending on which occurrence is applicable, we estimate thatthe Next Generation Transit Survey will discover either ~60 or ~1000 hotNeptunes around late K and early M-type dwarfs.

Trawling for transits in a sea of noise: A Search for Exoplanets by Analysis of WASP Optical Lightcurves and Follow-up (SEAWOLF)