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Accurate knowledge of the effect of feedback from galaxy formation on thematter distribution is a key requirement for future weak lensing experiments.Recent studies using hydrodynamic simulations have shown that differentbaryonic feedback scenarios lead to significantly different two-point shearstatistics. In this paper we extend earlier work to three-point shearstatistics. We show that, relative to the predictions of dark matter onlymodels, the amplitude of the signal can be reduced by as much as 30-40% onscales of a few arcminutes. We find that baryonic feedback may affect two- andthree-point shear statistics differently and demonstrate that this can be usedto assess the fidelity of various feedback models. In particular, upcomingsurveys such as Euclid might be able to discriminate between different feedbackmodels by measuring both second- and third-order statistics. Because it willlikely remain impossible to predict baryonic feedback with high accuracy fromfirst principles, we argue in favour of phenomenological models that cancapture the relevant effects of baryonic feedback processes in addition tochanges in cosmology. We construct such a model by modifying the darkmatter-only halo model to characterise the generic effects of energeticfeedback using a small number of parameters. We use this model to perform alikelihood analysis in a simplified case in which two- and three-point shearstatistics are measured between 0.5 and 20 arcmin and in which the amplitude offluctuations, sigma8, the matter density parameter, Om, and the dark energyparameter, w0, are the only unknown free parameters. We demonstrate that forweak lensing surveys such as Euclid, marginalising over the feedbac parametersdescribing the effects of baryonic processes, such as outflows driven byfeedback from star formation and AGN, may be able to mitigate the biasaffecting Om, sigma8 and w0.

Effect of baryonic feedback on two- and three-point shear statistics: prospects for detection and improved modelling