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We present new lensing frequency estimates for existing and forthcoming deepnear-infrared surveys, including those from JWST and VISTA. The estimates arebased on the JAdes extraGalactic Ultradeep Artificial Realisations (JAGUAR)galaxy catalogue accounting for the full photometry and morphologies for eachgalaxy. Due to the limited area of the JAGUAR simulations, they are less suitedto wide-area surveys, however we also present extrapolations to the surveyscarried out by Euclid and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Themethodology does not make assumptions on the nature of the lens itself andprobes a wide range of lens masses. The lenses and sources are selected fromthe same catalogue and extend the analysis from the visible bands into thenear-infrared. After generating realistic simulated lensed sources andselecting those that are detectable with SNR>20, we verify the lensingfrequency expectations against published lens samples selected in the visible,finding them to be broadly consistent. We find that JWST could yield ~ 65lensed systems in COSMOS-Web, of which ~ 25 per cent have source redshifts >4.Deeper, narrower programs (e.g. JADES-Medium) will probe more typical sourcegalaxies (in flux and mass) but will find fewer systems (~ 25). Of the surveyswe investigate, we find 55-80 per cent have detectable multiple imaging.Forthcoming NIR surveys will likely reveal new and diverse strong lens systemsincluding lensed sources that are at higher redshift (JWST) and dustier, moremassive and older (Euclid NISP) than those typically detected in thecorresponding visible surveys.

On the detectability of strong lensing in near-infrared surveys