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A fundamental prediction of the cold dark matter (CDM) model of structureformation is the existence of a vast population of dark matter haloes extendingto subsolar masses. By contrast, other dark matter models, such as a warmthermal relic (WDM), predict a cutoff in the mass function at a mass which, forpopular models, lies approximately between $10^7$ and $10^{10}~{\rm M}_\odot$.We use mock observations to demonstrate the viability of a forward modellingapproach to extract information about low-mass dark haloes lying along theline-of-sight to galaxy-galaxy strong lenses. This can be used to constrain themass of a thermal relic dark matter particle, $m_\mathrm{DM}$. With 50 stronglenses at Hubble Space Telescope resolution and a maximum pixel signal-to-noiseratio of $\sim50$, the expected median 2$\sigma$ constraint for a CDM-likemodel (with a halo mass cutoff at $10^{7}~{\rm M}_\odot$) is $m_\mathrm{DM} >4.10 \, \mathrm{keV}$ (50% chance of constraining $m_{\rm DM}$ to be betterthan 4.10 keV). If, however, the dark matter is a warm particle of$m_\mathrm{DM}=2.2 \, \mathrm{keV}$, our 'Approximate Bayesian Computation'method would result in a median estimate of $m_\mathrm{DM}$ between 1.43 and3.21 keV. Our method can be extended to the large samples of strong lenses thatwill be observed by future telescopes, and could potentially rule out thestandard CDM model of cosmogony. To aid future survey design, we quantify howthese constraints will depend on data quality (spatial resolution andintegration time) as well as on the lensing geometry (source and lensredshifts).

A forward-modelling method to infer the dark matter particle mass from strong gravitational lenses