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We investigate the evolution in galactic dust mass over cosmic time throughi) empirically derived dust masses using stacked submillimetre fluxes at 850umin the COSMOS field, and ii) dust masses derived using a robust post-processingmethod on the results from the cosmological hydrodynamical simulationIllustrisTNG. We effectively perform a self-calibration of the dust massabsorption coefficient by forcing the model and observations to agree at lowredshift and then compare the evolution shown by the observations with thatpredicted by the model. We create dust mass functions (DMFs) based on theIllustrisTNG simulations from 0 < z < 0.5 and compare these with previouslyobserved DMFs. We find a lack of evolution in the DMFs derived from thesimulations, in conflict with the rapid evolution seen in empirically derivedestimates of the low redshift DMF. Furthermore, we observe a strong evolutionin the observed mean ratio of dust mass to stellar mass of galaxies over theredshift range 0 < z < 5, whereas the corresponding dust masses fromIllustrisTNG show relatively little evolution, even after splitting the sampleinto satellites and centrals. The large discrepancy between the strong observedevolution and the weak evolution predicted by IllustrisTNG plus post-processingmay be explained by either strong cosmic evolution in the properties of thedust grains or limitations in the model. In the latter case, the limitation maybe connected to previous claims that the neutral gas content of galaxies doesnot evolve fast enough in IllustrisTNG.

IllustrisTNG and S2COSMOS: possible conflicts in the evolution of neutral gas and dust