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Galaxies forming in low-mass halos are thought to be primarily responsiblefor reionizing the Universe during the first billion years after the Big Bang.Yet, these halos are extremely inefficient at forming stars in the nearbyUniverse. In this work, we address this apparent tension, and ask whether aphysically motivated model of galaxy formation that reproduces the observedabundance of faint galaxies in the nearby Universe is also consistent withavailable observational constraints on the reionization history. By interfacingthe Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation with an analyticreionization model, we constructed a computationally efficient pipeline thatconnects `ground-level' galaxy formation physics to `top-level'cosmological-scale observables. Based on photometric properties of the galaxypopulations predicted up to $z=15$, we compute the reionization history ofintergalactic hydrogen. We quantify the three degenerate quantities thatinfluence the total ionizing photon budget, including the abundance ofgalaxies, the intrinsic production rate of ionizing photons, and the LyC escapefraction. We explore covariances between these quantities using a Markov chainMonte Carlo method. We find that our locally calibrated model is consistentwith all currently available constraints on the reionization history, underreasonable assumptions about the LyC escape fraction. We quantify the fractionof ionizing photons contributed by galaxies of different luminosities and findthat the galaxies expected to be detected in JWST NIRCam wide and deep surveysare responsible for producing $\sim 40$-$80\%$ of ionizing photons throughoutthe EoR. All results presented in this work are available athttps://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.

Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST -- IV. Implications for cosmic reionization and LyC escape fraction