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Suspicions about medical murder sometimes arise due to a surprising orunexpected series of events, such as an apparently unusual number of deathsamong patients under the care of a particular nurse. But also a singledisturbing event might trigger suspicion about a particular nurse, and thismight then lead to investigation of events which happened when she was thoughtto be present. In either case, there is a statistical challenge ofdistinguishing event clusters that arise from criminal acts from those thatarise coincidentally from other causes. We show that an apparently strikingassociation between a nurse's presence and a high rate of deaths in a hospitalward can easily be completely spurious. In short: in a medium-care hospitalward where many patients are suffering terminal illnesses, and deaths arefrequent, most deaths occur in the morning. Most nurses are on duty in themorning, too. There are less deaths in the afternoon, and even less at night;correspondingly, less nurses are on duty in the afternoon, even less during thenight. Consequently, a full time nurse works the most hours when the mostdeaths occur. The death rate is higher when she is present than when she isabsent.

Statistical Analyses in the case of an Italian nurse accused of murdering patients