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Examination of spatial variation in demography among or within populations of the same species is a topic of growing interest in ecology. We examined whether spatial variation in demography of a tropical megaherbivore followed the “temporal paradigm” or the “adult survival paradigm” of ungulate population dynamics formulated from temperate-zone studies. We quantified spatial variation in demographic rates for giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) at regional and continental scales. Regionally, we used photographic capture-mark-recapture data from 860 adult females and 449 calves to estimate adult female survival, calf survival, and reproduction at 5 sites in the Tarangire ecosystem of Tanzania. We examined potential mechanisms for spatial variation in regional demographic rates. At the continental scale, we synthesized demographic estimates from published studies across the range of the species. We created matrix population models for all sites at both scales and used prospective and retrospective analyses to determine which vital rate was most important to variation in population growth rate. Spatial variability of demographic parameters at the continental scale was in agreement with the temporal paradigm of low variability in adult survival and more highly variable reproduction and calf survival. In contrast, at the regional scale, adult female survival had higher spatial variation, in agreement with the adult survival paradigm. At both scales, variation in adult female survival made the greatest contribution to variation in local population growth rates. Our work documented contrasting patterns of spatial variation in demographic rates of giraffes at 2 spatial scales, but at both scales, we found the same vital rate was most important. We also found anthropogenic impacts on adult females are the most likely mechanism of regional population trajectories.

Spatial variation in giraffe demography: a test of 2 paradigms