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The World Health organization (WHO) recommends that children engage in 60 min daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (dMVPA). Just half of children in the UK achieve these levels (with similarly low levels in other high-income countries). Thus, the dMVPA target is a focus of national obesity strategies. However, the potential impact of increased physical activity on prevalence and inequalities in childhood overweight is unknown. Using objective data from the Millennium Cohort Study (∼18 000 children born 2000-02) we simulated a series of hypothetical physical activity intervention scenarios: achievement of the target, and more realistic increases demonstrated in trials.

international journal of epidemiology

What if all children achieved WHO recommendations on physical activity? Estimating the impact on socioeconomic inequalities in childhood overweight in the UK Millennium Cohort Study