Overestimation of complication rates in evaluations of Chlamydia trachomatis screening programmes--implications for cost-effectiveness analyses

Cost-effectiveness analyses of screening programmes for asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis infection suggest that screening at low prevalences in the population is cost-effective. However, the decision models in these studies are based on assumptions about the risk of complications, which are derived from the literature. Incorrect assumptions may lead to under- or overestimation of the effectiveness of screening. The first objective of this paper is to evaluate the assumptions about the probability of complications after an asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection. The second objective is to calculate alternative rates by using available data on the incidence of complications.