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We begin by giving away our punch line: A lack of physiological insight is the primary impediment to the successful prediction of the ecological effects of climatic change. To be sure, there are uncertainties in our predictions of future climate, especially at the local scale, and the complexities of ecological interactions stretch our ability to model complex systems. But it is physiology—our understanding of how individual organisms function and interact with their environment—that presents the largest challenge. Without a better mechanistic understanding of how plants and animals work, we can never be assured of an accurate warning of what lies ahead for life on earth.

Confronting the physiological bottleneck: A challenge from ecomechanics