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Although China's community health system helped inspire the 1978 Alma Ata Declaration on Health for All, it currently faces the challenge of strengthening primary care in response to hospital sector dominance. As the world reaffirms its commitment towards primary health services, China's recent history provides a salient case study of the issues at stake in optimizing the balance of care. In this study, we have used path dependence analysis to explain China's coevolution of hospital and primary care facilities between 1949 and 2018. We have identified two cycles of path-dependent development (1949-78 and 1978-2018) involving four sets of institutions related to medical professionalization, financing, organization and governance of health facilities. Both cycles started with a critical juncture amid a radically changing societal context, when institutions favouring hospitals were initiated or renewed, leading to a process of self-reinforcement empowering the hospitals. Later in each cycle, events occurred that modified this hospital dominance. However, pro-primary care policies during these conjunctures encountered resilience from the existing institutional environment. The result was continued consolidation of hospital dominance over the long term. These recurrent constraints suggest that primary care strengthening is unlikely to be successful without a comprehensive set of policy reforms driven by a primary care coalition with strong professional, bureaucratic and community stakes, co-ordinated and sustained over a prolonged period. Our findings imply that it is important to understand the history of health systems in China, where the challenges of health systems strengthening go beyond limited resources and include different developmental paths as compared with Western countries.

A path dependence analysis of hospital dominance in China (1949–2018): lessons for primary care strengthening