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Older adults are at greater risk for developing and accumulating multimorbidity, defined as 2 or more chronic diseases. This study describes the characteristics of multimorbidity progression-based groups using Medicare claims chronic condition warehouse algorithms over a 24-year period. The HRS-Medicare linked data (1991-2015, N=17,895, age 67 years and older) were used in descriptive analyses presented as a Sankey flow diagram. We identified 1,293 (7.2%) beneficiaries who had not yet developed multimorbidity by the end of the observation period (no multimorbidity), 7,552 (42.2%) who started without but developed multimorbidity over the course of observation (incident multimorbidity), and 9,050 (50.6%) who had multimorbidity upon study entry (prevalent multimorbidity). There were notable differences between multimorbidity progression-based groups. Beneficiaries with prevalent multimorbidity were younger at baseline (73.1% in youngest age category [67-69] vs. 50.3% for incident and 66.7% for no multimorbidity), had proportionately higher levels of cognitive impairment (21.6% CIND/dementia vs. 15.4% for incident and 16.8% for no multimorbidity), and greater mean levels of functional impairment and healthcare utilization. Non-Hispanic Black beneficiaries were more represented in prevalent multimorbidity (15.4%) than in the incident (11.8%) and no multimorbidity groups (13.4%). Non-Hispanic White beneficiaries were more represented in the incident (83.5%) than the prevalent (77.2%) and the no multimorbidity (77.7%). Hispanic beneficiaries were more represented in the no (8.9%) than the prevalent (7.4%) and incident multimorbidity groups (4.7%). Results highlight beneficiaries who experience clinically-meaningful transitions to multimorbidity states in late life, allowing new insights and informing interventions to address burdensome changes to their chronic disease status.

Multimorbidity Progression among Medicare Beneficiaries in the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2014)