Predicting the genomic resolution of bulk segregant analysis

Bulk segregant analysis is a technique for identifying the genetic loci that underlie phenotypic trait differences. The basic approach is to compare two pools of individuals from the opposing tails of the phenotypic distribution, sampled from an interbred population. Each pool is sequenced and scanned for alleles that show divergent frequencies between the pools, indicating potential association with the observed trait differences. Bulk segregant analysis has already been successfully applied to the mapping of various quantitative trait loci in organisms ranging from yeast to maize. However, these studies have typically suffered from rather low mapping resolution, and we still lack a detailed understanding of how this resolution is affected by experimental parameters. Here, we use coalescence theory to calculate the expected genomic resolution of bulk segregant analysis for a simple monogenic trait. We first show that in an idealized interbreeding population of infinite size, the expected length of the mapped region is inversely proportional to the recombination rate, the number of generations of interbreeding, and the number of genomes sampled, as intuitively expected. In a finite population, coalescence events in the genealogy of the sample reduce the number of potentially informative recombination events during interbreeding, thereby increasing the length of the mapped region. This is incorporated into our model by an effective population size parameter that specifies the pairwise coalescence rate of the interbreeding population. The mapping resolution predicted by our calculations closely matches numerical simulations and is surprisingly robust to moderate levels of contamination of the segregant pools with alternative alleles. Furthermore, we show that the approach can easily be extended to modifications of the crossing scheme. Our framework will allow researchers to predict the expected power of their mapping experiments, and to evaluate how their experimental design could be tuned to optimize mapping resolution.