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Background Recent evidence suggests a link between long-term exposure to traffic-related pollution and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in adults. The present study aims at exploring this association in a highly urbanized setting such as the city of Milan. Methods This is a population-based retrospective dynamic cohort study in the municipality of Milan. All residents aged &amp;gt;35 years with no prior diagnosis of diabetes were included (N = 1096654), with follow-up ranging from January 2011 to June 2019. The residential address of each subject was geocoded and assigned mean values of traffic noise at the day-evening-night level (Lden, dB) and NO2 concentration (µg/m3) using a noise predictive model and a NO2 land-use regression model with 30x30 m grid resolution. Associations with a new diagnosis of diabetes were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, nationality and a socio-economic deprivation index. A dichotomous classification of addresses as city center/suburban based on the External Ring Road as a delimiter was also used for a stratified analysis. Results New diagnoses of diabetes occurred in 26134 subjects (2.4%). Models using NO2, either continuous or ranked into quintiles, yielded no significant results. When using noise to categorize traffic intensity (&amp;lt;65/65-69/70-74/≥75 dB), a positive yet non-significant trend was shown. At stratified analysis, increases in risk were found for the two highest levels of exposure in the city center (70-74 dB: HR 1.141, 95% C.I. 1.013-1.284; ≥75 dB: HR 1.185, 95% C.I. 1.058-1.328). Conclusions Residential proximity to high-traffic roads categorized according to traffic noise was found to be associated with an increased risk of being diagnosed with diabetes. The effect is evident in the city center, whereas in the suburban area it might be masked by individual and lifestyle factors that ought to be investigated in future studies. Key messages Living close to high-traffic roads in a highly urbanized environment increases the risk of diabetes. Policies aimed at reducing traffic intensity in large cities may lower the incidence of this highly prevalent chronic condition.

Traffic noise, air pollutants and incidence of diabetes mellitus: a population cohort study in Milan