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Building on the findings of presentations 1 and 2, we turn to two further measures of population health: life expectancy at birth and lifespan variation. Life expectancy at birth provides a single figure that captures the overall mortality experience of a nation, and, in the absence of data artefact, a wide-scale environmental event such as war or natural disaster, a disease epidemic or mass migration, life expectancy can be expected to continue to improve in HICs. Concurrently lifespan variation, which measures the average gap between the age at death of an individual and the remaining life expectancy at that age, should decrease as life expectancy increases. Recent analysis of life expectancy improvements in HICs by the Office for National Statistics, using Human Mortality Database data, found that while Japan continues to see improvements, the UK and the USA fell to the bottom of the rankings. Economically, both the UK and Japan have experienced 'lost decades' of poor economic growth, in 1990s and 2010s respectively. Yet, while Japan continued to see life expectancy improvements, in the UK life expectancy stalled, and both countries saw an increase in lifespan variation. In this presentation, we will present the analysis of lifespan variation of 5 HICs: the USA, where life expectancy has declined, the UK, where gains in life expectancy have trailed behind those in other industrialised countries, Japan, which has seen sustained progress, and France and Canada, neighbours of the UK and USA respectively, which lie in the middle. We will examine what can be determined from these measures over periods of poor economic growth, and the implications for achieving 'sustainable growth'.

What can lifespan variation tell us about trends in life expectancy in high income countries?