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Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background. Arterial stiffness/remodeling results in impaired blood flow and, eventually, decreased glucose disposal in peripheral tissues and increased blood glucose. Besides, increased arterial stiffness/remodeling may lead to hypertension, as a potential reciprocal risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). We, therefore, hypothesized that increased arterial stiffness/remodeling is associated with an increased risk of T2D. Purpose. To study the associations between arterial stiffness/remodeling and incident T2D. Methods. We used the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Common carotid arterial properties were ultrasonically determined in plaque-free areas. Aortic stiffness was estimated by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cf_PWV), carotid stiffness was estimated by the carotid distensibility coefficient (carDC). Arterial remodeling was estimated by carotid artery lumen diameter (carDi), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), mean circumferential wall stress (CWSmean), and pulsatile circumferential wall stress (CWSpuls). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the associations between arterial stiffness/remodeling and the risk of incident T2D, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, mean arterial pressure (MAP), antihypertensive medications, heart rate, non- high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, lipid-lowering medications, and smoking. We included interaction terms in the fully adjusted models to study whether any significant associations were modified by sex, age, blood glucose, or MAP. Spearman correlation analyses were applied to examine the correlations between measurements of arterial stiffness/remodeling and glycemic traits. Results. We included 3,055 individuals free of T2D at baseline (mean (SD) age, 67.2 (7.9) years). During a median follow-up of 14.0 years, 395 (12.9%) T2D occurred. After adjustments, higher cf_PWV (hazard ratio (HR),1.18; 95%CI:1.04-1.35), carDi (1.17; 1.04-1.32), cIMT (1.15; 1.01-1.32), and CWSpuls (1.28; 1.12-1.47) were associated with increased risk of incident T2D. After further adjustment for the baseline glucose, the associations attenuated but remained statistically significant. Sex, age, blood glucose, or MAP did not modify the associations between measurements of arterial stiffness/remodeling, and incident T2D. Among the population with prediabetes at baseline (n = 513) compared to the general population, larger cIMT was associated with a greater increase in the risk of T2D. Most measurements of arterial stiffness/remodeling significantly but weakly correlated with baseline glycemic traits, particularly with blood glucose.  Conclusions. Our study suggests that greater arterial stiffness/remodeling is independently associated with an increased risk of T2D development. Blood glucose and hypertension do not seem to play significant roles in these associations. Further studies should disentangle the underlying mechanism that links arterial stiffness/remodeling and T2D.

Associations of markers of arterial stiffness and remodeling with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus