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The extent to which the relationship between environmental factors (temperature and grain moisture content) and life history traits can predict insect population trends in stored wheat was investigated by comparing nine measured population trends with predictions from population dynamics simulation models. Regression of measured against predicted insect population densities indicated that the predictions of the simulation model explained 87, 93, and 96% of the changes in the mean measured densities of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), Rhyzopertha dominica F., and Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), respectively. Thus, for the population trends of the three species presented here, only 13, 7, and 4% of the changes in mean measured population densities remains to be explained by other factors.

Predictability of Stored-Wheat Insect Population Trends from Life History Traits