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Internet boards are platforms for online discussions about a variety oftopics. On these boards, individuals may start a new thread on a specificmatter, or leave comments in an existing discussion. The resulting collectiveprocess leads to the formation of `discussion trees', where nodes represent apost and comments, and an edge represents a `reply-to' relation. The structureof discussion trees has been analysed in previous works, but only from a staticperspective. In this paper, we focus on their structural and dynamicalproperties by modelling their formation as a self-exciting Hawkes process. Wefirst study a Reddit dataset to show that the structure of the trees resemblethose produced by a Galton-Watson process with a special root offspringdistribution. The dynamical aspect of the model is then used to predict futurecommenting activity and the final size of a discussion tree. We compare theefficiency of our approach with previous works and show its superiority for theprediction of the dynamics of discussions.

Modelling structure and predicting dynamics of discussion threads in online boards