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Background To expedite the development of new oral treatment regimens for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), there is a need for early markers to evaluate treatment response and predict long-term outcomes. Methods Data from 3 clinical trials were combined in this study, in which Eastern African VL patients received various antileishmanial therapies. Leishmania kinetoplast DNA was quantified in whole blood with real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) before, during, and up to 6 months after treatment. The predictive performance of pharmacodynamic parameters for clinical relapse was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curves. Clinical trial simulations were performed to determine the power associated with the use of blood parasite load as a surrogate endpoint to predict clinical outcome at 6 months. Results The absolute parasite density on day 56 after start of treatment was found to be a highly sensitive predictor of relapse within 6 months of follow-up at a cutoff of 20 parasites/mL (area under the curve 0.92, specificity 0.91, sensitivity 0.89). Blood parasite loads correlated well with tissue parasite loads (ρ = 0.80) and with microscopy gradings of bone marrow and spleen aspirate smears. Clinical trial simulations indicated a &amp;gt; 80% power to detect a difference in cure rate between treatment regimens if this difference was high (&amp;gt; 50%) and when minimally 30 patients were included per regimen. Conclusions Blood Leishmania parasite load determined by qPCR is a promising early biomarker to predict relapse in VL patients. Once optimized, it might be useful in dose finding studies of new chemical entities.

Blood Parasite Load as an Early Marker to Predict Treatment Response in Visceral Leishmaniasis in Eastern Africa