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Aims A Competition Ratio (CR) indicates the ratio of total applications for a training post when compared with numbers of specialty posts available. This study aimed to evaluate CRs’ influence on National Training Number (NTN) selection in a single UK Statutory Education Body. Methods Consecutive Core Surgical Trainees numbering 154 (median years since graduation: four, 105 male, 49 female) were studied over a six-year period. Annual specialty specific CRs were obtained from Health Education England’s website, and primary outcome measure was UK National Training Number (NTN) appointment. Results Overall NTN appointment was 45.5%. Median CR was 2.36; range OMFS 0.70 (2020) to Neurosurgery 22.0 (2020). Multivariable analysis revealed that NTN success was associated with: CR (OR 0.46, p = 0.003), a single scientific publication (OR 6.25, p = 0.001), cohort year (2019, OR 12.65, p = 0.003), and Universal ARCP Outcome 1 (OR 45.24, p &amp;lt; 0.001). CRs predicted NTN appointment with a Youden index defined critical ratio of 4.42; 28.6% (n = 8) vs. 49.2% (n = 62), p = 0.018. Conclusions CRs displayed 30-fold variation, with CRs below 4.42 associated with two-fold better NTN promotion, but strong clinical competence and academic reach again emerged as the principal drivers of career advancement.

SP2.1.17Prognostic significance of competition ratios in surgical specialty training selection