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Darwin claims in the Origin that similarity is evidence for common ancestry, but that adaptive similarities are ‘almost valueless’ as evidence. This second claim seems reasonable for some adaptive similarities but not for others. Here we clarify and evaluate these and related matters by using the law of likelihood as an analytic tool and by considering mathematical models of three evolutionary processes: directional selection, stabilizing selection, and drift. Our results apply both to Darwin’s theory of evolution and to modern evolutionary biology. 1 Introduction 2 The Likelihood Framework 3 A Sufficient Condition for a Similarity to Favour Common Ancestry over Separate Ancestry 4 The 1/p Criterion and Its Limitations 5 Directional Selection versus Drift 6 Stabilizing Selection versus Drift 7 Going beyond Two Taxa 8 Conclusions Appendix 1 Introduction 2 The Likelihood Framework 3 A Sufficient Condition for a Similarity to Favour Common Ancestry over Separate Ancestry 4 The 1/p Criterion and Its Limitations 5 Directional Selection versus Drift 6 Stabilizing Selection versus Drift 7 Going beyond Two Taxa 8 Conclusions Appendix

Similarities as Evidence for Common Ancestry: A Likelihood Epistemology