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. The risk of asbestos diseases cannot be measured directly in populations with low level chrysotile asbestos exposure. Risk assessments must be used to extrapolate risks from past heavy industrial asbestos exposures to today’s low chrysotile exposures. We tested the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mesothelioma risk model in a population having experienced relatively high and mostly non-occupational chrysotile exposures. Methods. Female mesotheliomas first diagnosed from 1970 to 1989 in chrysotile asbestos mining districts (Asbestos and Thetford) were identified from the Quebec Tumour Registry and hospital records gathered throughout the province. Diagnoses were reviewed by three pathologists. An international expert panel estimated historical ambient exposure levels in these districts. A ‘time–area–job–family exposure’ matrix was derived from these estimates, occupational and cohabitation exposure estimates and a survey of 817 female residents. We applied the EPA mesothelioma incidence model to the population time–area–job–family exposure matrix and compared this predicted incidence with that actually observed. Results. Ambient airborne asbestos exposures were between 0.1 and 3 fibres/ml before 1970. The EPA asbestos risk model predicted 150 (range 30–750) female mesotheliomas in Asbestos, while only one case (peritoneal) was observed; 500 cases (range 100–2500) were predicted in Thetford Mines, while 10 cases (pleural) were observed. These large discrepancies cannot be explained by random or systematic errors.

Risk of Mesothelioma Among Women Living Near Chrysotile Mines Versus US EPA Asbestos Risk Model: Preliminary Findings