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Objective Diabetes is a risk factor for dementia but little is known about the impact of diabetes duration on the risk of dementia. We investigated the effect of type 2 diabetes duration on the risk of dementia. Design Prospective cohort study using health claims data representative for the older German population. The data contain information about diagnoses and medical prescriptions from the in- and outpatient sector. Methods We performed piecewise exponential models with a linear and a quadratic term for time since first type 2 diabetes diagnosis to predict the dementia risk in a sample of 13,761 subjects (2,558 dementia cases) older than 65 years. We controlled for severity of diabetes using the Adopted Diabetes Complications Severity Index. Results We found a U-shaped dementia risk over time. After type 2 diabetes diagnosis the dementia risk decreased (26% after 1 year) and reached a minimum at 4.75 years, followed by an increase through the end of follow-up. The pattern was consistent over different treatment groups, with the strongest U-shape for insulin treatment and for those with diabetes complications at the time of diabetes diagnosis. Conclusions We identified a non-linear association of type 2 diabetes duration and the risk of dementia. Physicians should closely monitor cognitive function in diabetic patients beyond the first few years after diagnosis, because the later increase in dementia occurred in all treatment groups.

Diabetes duration and the risk of dementia: a cohort study based on German health claims data