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The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main driversbehind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upperatmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a directimpact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards toastronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to developaccurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-termevolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spreadpredictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to thedisagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering differentcomponents of the solar magnetic field (toroidal vs.\ poloidal). Here we usesunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as ourtoroidal and poloidal field proxies), to study solar cycle propagation, memory,and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polarmagnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated to cycleamplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests thatthe joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aimsto cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favorof active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal fieldgeneration (i.e. the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at thecorrelation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles,we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies