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Data from the SDSS (300,000 galaxies) indicates that recent star formation(within the last 1 billion years) is bimodal: half the stars form from gas withhigh amounts of metals (solar metallicity), and the other half form with smallcontribution of elements heavier than Helium (10-30% solar). Theoreticalstudies of mass loss from the brightest stars derive significantly higherstellar-origin BH masses (30-80 Msun) than previously estimated for sub-solarcompositions. We combine these findings to estimate the probability ofdetecting gravitational waves (GWs) arising from the inspiral of double compactobjects. Our results show that a low metallicity environment significantlyboosts the formation of double compact object binaries with at least one BH. Inparticular, we find the GW detection rate is increased by a factor of 20 if themetallicity is decreased from solar (as in all previous estimates) to a 50-50mixture of solar and 10% solar metallicity. The current sensitivity of the twolargest instruments to NS-NS binary inspirals (VIRGO: 9 Mpc; LIGO: 18) is nothigh enough to ensure a first detection. However, our results indicate that ifa future instrument increased the sensitivity to 50-100 Mpc, a detection of GWswould be expected within the first year of observation. It was previouslythought that NS-NS inspirals were the most likely source for GW detection. Ourresults indicate that BH-BH binaries are 25-times more likely sources thanNS-NS systems and that we are on the cusp of GW detection.

The effect of metallicity on the detection prospects for gravitational waves