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In this paper, risk is perceived as the probable damage caused by a fire in the tunnel lining. In its first part the traffic flow is described as a Markov chain of joint states consisting of a combination of trucks/buses (TB) and personal cars (PC) from adjoining lanes. The heat release rate is then taken for a measure of the fire power. The intensity λf reflecting the frequency of fires was assessed based on extensive studies carried out in Austria [1] and Italy [2, 3]. The traffic density AADT, the length of the tunnel L, the percentage of TBs, and the number of lanes are the remaining parameters characterizing the traffic flow. In the second part, a special combination of models originally proposed by Bažant and Thonguthai [4], and Kunzel & Kiessl [5] for the description of transport processes in concrete at very high temperatures creates a basis for the prediction of the thickness of the spalling zone and the volume of concrete degraded by temperatures that exceed a certain temperature level. The model was validated against a macroscopic test on concrete samples placed into the furnace.

Probabilistic approach to damage of tunnel lining due to fire