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Flood and seasonal drought occur frequently in Chongqing area. The study of rainfall distribution may provide the theoretical basis for flood control and drought resistance. Daily rainfall data of Shapingba District in Chongqing from 1995 to 2014 are used in this paper to analyse the annual distribution using the method of uneven distribution coefficient, complete adjustment coefficient and concentration degree, meanwhile, the annual variation of rainfall are analysed by the Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearman rank correlation method. The results show that the rainfall in Shapingba area is mainly concentrated in April-September, accounting for 78% of the annual rainfall, Especially in June, the rainfall is the most, accounting for 20% of the annual rainfall, which is the key period for flood control. The annual distribution of rainfall is relatively concentrated, and shows an upward trend on the whole, and there is no sudden change in many years. Summer is the most obvious seasonal rainfall change, which may be related to local climate characteristics. The difference of forecasting precipitation was little between P-III distribution and Gumbel distribution. Especially for normal year (P=50%) and dry year (P=90%), the precipitation was very close. Thus, either method can be used to forecast precipitation in the future.

Analysis and Forecast of Rainfall in Shapingba District of Chongqing