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A significant proportion of the infections driving the current {SARS-CoV-2}pandemic are transmitted asymptomatically. Here we introduce and study a simpleepidemic model with separate compartments comprising asymptomatic andsymptomatic infected individuals. The linear dynamics determining the outbreakcondition of the model is equivalent to a renewal theory approach withexponential waiting time distributions. Exploiting a nontrivial conservationlaw of the full nonlinear dynamics, we derive analytic bounds on the peaknumber of infections in the absence and presence of mitigation throughisolation and testing. The bounds are compared to numerical solutions of thedifferential equations.

Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation