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In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques toestimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-isticdynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysisalgorithms can be successfully applied to a toy model of atmospheric dynamics,the Lorenz '96 model. We furthermore use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck system toillustrate a number of implementation issues. We also show how a time-dependentobjective function based on the fluctuation path to a high threshold cangreatly improve the performance of the estimator compared to a fixed-in-timeobjective function.

Rare event computation in deterministic chaotic systems using genealogical particle analysis