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19 Rapid intensification (RI) refers to a significant increase in tropical cyclone (TC) 20 intensity over a short period of time. A TC can also undergo multiple RI events during 21 its lifetime, and these RI events pose a significant challenge for operational 22 forecasting. The long-term tendency in RI magnitude of TCs over the western North 23 Pacific is investigated in this study. During 1979-2018, a significant increasing trend 24 is found in RI magnitude, which primarily results from the significant increasing 25 number of strong RI events, defined as 24-h intensity increases of at least 50 kt. 26 Furthermore, there are significantly more (slightly fewer) strong RI occurrences west 27 (east) of 155°E in 1999-2018 than in 1979-1998. Significant increases in strong RI 28 occurrences are located over the region bounded by 10°~20°N, 120°~150°E. These 29 changes are likely induced by the warming ocean but appear uncorrelated with 30 changes in the atmospheric environment. By contrast, there are slight decreases in 31 strong RI occurrences over the region bounded by 12.5°~22.5°N, 155°~170°E, likely 32 due to the offset between RI-favorable influences of the warming ocean and RI33 unfavorable influences of increasing vertical wind shear (VWS). 34 35 36 Page 2 of 21 AUTHOR SUBMITTED MANUSCRIPT ERL-108195.R2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A cc ep te d M an u cr ip t

Increasing trend in rapid intensification magnitude of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific