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Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation andprojection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses theperformance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulatingintra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. Weevaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique toproject the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most ofthe general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasiaand the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winterseason. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, theaccuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefcient R between eachGCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagramshows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliabilityensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to anysingle GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almostidentical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallestamong the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by theBMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around1.03°C/100yr, 3.11°C/100yr and 7.14°C/100yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, thespring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring underthe RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT projections increases with time inthe 21st century.S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/055007/mmediaKeywords: CMIP5, multi-model ensembles, Northern Eurasia, temperature

Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia