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The SouthwesternUnited States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts onwater security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven importedwater. The State of California, which is themost populous and agriculturally productive in theUnited States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance systemprimarily for irrigated agriculture,municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation.Herewe take an integrative high-resolution ensemblemodeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to SouthernCalifornia.While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towardsmore rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associatedwith these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions andflooding events. The 50 year extreme dailymaximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 timesmore likely to occur depending on thewater supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff overmountainous snow generating regions like the SierraNevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases importedwater supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiringwater releases from control reservoirs, whichmay potentially decrease water availability outside of thewet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupledwith projected climate changes and population increasesmay leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century