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The effectiveness of fiscal policy to influence vehicle purchases foremissions reductions in private passenger road transport depends on its abilityto incentivise consumers to make choices oriented towards lower emissionsvehicles. However, car purchase choices are known to be strongly sociallydetermined, and this sector is highly diverse due to significant socio-economicdifferences between consumer groups. Here, we present a comprehensive datasetand analysis of the structure of the 2012 private passenger vehicle fleet-yearsin six major economies across the World (UK, USA, China, India, Japan andBrazil) in terms of price, engine size and emissions distributions. We arguethat choices and aggregate elasticities of substitution can be predicted usingthis data, enabling to evaluate the effectiveness of potential fiscal andtechnological change policies on fleet-year emissions reductions. We providetools to do so based on the distributive structure of prices and emissions insegments of a diverse market, both for conventional as well as unconventionalengine technologies. We find that markets differ significantly between nations,and that correlations between engine sizes, emissions and prices exist stronglyin some markets and not strongly in others. We furthermore find that marketsfor unconventional engine technologies have patchy coverages of varying levels.These findings are interpreted in terms of policy strategy.

The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies