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We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events oftemperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviationtheory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like generalcirculation model of the atmosphere and numerically estimate large deviationrate functions of near-surface temperature in the mid-latitudes. We find that,after a re-normalisation based on the integrated auto-correlation, the ratefunction one obtains at a given latitude by looking, locally in space, at longtime averages agrees with what is obtained, instead, by looking, locally intime, at large spatial averages along the latitude. This is a result of scalesymmetry in the spatial-temporal turbulence and of the fact that advection isprimarily zonal. This agreement hints at the universality of large deviationsof the temperature field. Furthermore, we discover that the obtained ratefunction is able to describe spatially extended and temporally persistent heatwaves or cold spells, if we consider temporal averages of spatial averages overintermediate spatial scales. Finally, we find out that large deviations arerelatively more likely to occur when looking at these spatial averagesperformed over intermediate scales, thus pointing to the existence of weatherpatterns associated to the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere. Extremevalue theory is used to benchmark our results.

A Large Deviation Theory-based Analysis of Heat Waves and Cold Spells in a Simplified Model of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere