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Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the earlysignatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems,financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. Signatures ofregime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated.In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamicsdescribed by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. Weconsider two alternative models, Models 1 and 2, of competence development inthe bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of theregime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministicand stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signaturesstudied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached,rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio oftwo mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide theexperimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability asthe correct mechanism for the development of competence.

Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics