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Weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are amongst the most interestingdark matter (DM) candidates. Many DM candidates naturally arise in theoriesbeyond the standard model (SM) of particle physics, like weak-scalesupersymmetry (SUSY). Experiments aim to detect WIMPs by scattering,annihilation or direct production, and thereby determine the underlying theoryto which they belong, along with its parameters. Here we examine the prospectsfor further constraining the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model(CMSSM) with future ton-scale direct detection experiments. We considerton-scale extrapolations of three current experiments: CDMS, XENON and COUPP,with 1000 kg-years of raw exposure each. We assume energy resolutions, energyranges and efficiencies similar to the current versions of the experiments, andinclude backgrounds at target levels. Our analysis is based on full likelihoodconstructions for the experiments. We also take into account presentuncertainties on hadronic matrix elements for neutralino-quark couplings, andon halo model parameters. We generate synthetic data based on four benchmarkpoints and scan over the CMSSM parameter space using nested sampling. Weconstruct both Bayesian posterior PDFs and frequentist profile likelihoods forthe model parameters, as well as the mass and various cross-sections of thelightest neutralino. Future ton-scale experiments will help substantially inconstraining supersymmetry, especially when results of experiments primarilytargeting spin-dependent nuclear scattering are combined with those directedmore toward spin-independent interactions.

How well will ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments constrain minimal supersymmetry?