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The application of effective field theory (EFT) methods to nuclear systemsprovides the opportunity to rigorously estimate the uncertainties originatingin the nuclear Hamiltonian. Yet this is just one source of uncertainty in theobservables predicted by calculations based on nuclear EFTs. We discuss thegoals of uncertainty quantification in such calculations and outline a recipeto obtain statistically meaningful error bars for their predictions. We arguethat the different sources of theory error can be accounted for within aBayesian framework, as we illustrate using a toy model.

A recipe for EFT uncertainty quantification in nuclear physics