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Gas giant planets orbiting within 0.1 AU of their host stars, unlikely tohave formed in situ, are evidence for planetary migration. It is debatedwhether the typical hot Jupiter smoothly migrated inward from its formationlocation through the proto-planetary disk or was perturbed by another body ontoa highly eccentric orbit, which tidal dissipation subsequently shrank andcircularized during close stellar passages. Socrates and collaboratorspredicted that the latter class of model should produce a population ofsuper-eccentric proto-hot Jupiters readily observable by Kepler. We find apaucity of such planets in the Kepler sample, inconsistent with the theoreticalprediction with 96.9% confidence. Observational effects are unlikely to explainthis discrepancy. We find that the fraction of hot Jupiters with orbital periodP > 3 days produced by the star-planet Kozai mechanism does not exceed (attwo-sigma) 44%. Our results may indicate that disk migration is the dominantchannel for producing hot Jupiters with P > 3 days. Alternatively, the typicalhot Jupiter may have been perturbed to a high eccentricity by interactions witha planetary rather than stellar companion and began tidal circularization muchinterior to 1 AU after multiple scatterings. A final alternative is that tidalcircularization occurs much more rapidly early in the tidal circularizationprocess at high eccentricities than later in the process at low eccentricities,contrary to current tidal theories.

A paucity of proto-hot Jupiters on super-eccentric orbits